Jagmeet Singh touts affordable housing during a campaign stop at the Coast Bastion Hotel in Nanaimo on Sept. 26, 2019. (Nicholas Pescod/NEWS BULLETIN)

Spotlight on B.C.: Setting the agenda on key election issues

Black Press Media presents a four-part series looking into how B.C. will affect the national outcome

By Bruce Cameron

Former federal Conservative leader and PM-for-a-minute Kim Campbell once said, “an election is no time to discuss serious issues.”

That quote came to epitomize her ill-fated 1993 campaign, which saw a 156-seat Conservative majority reduced to just two seats, neither of which was her riding of Vancouver Centre.

Campbell claimed her words had been taken out of context, and what she meant to say was that 43 days is not enough time to resolve complex issues. The clarification fell flat, but that episode highlights the tricky task facing all party leaders in 2019: articulating their visions on the campaign trail.

As American Democratic Party pollster Stanley Greenberg recently said: “Those who figure out what the fight is actually about are able to set the agenda and motivate voters to get involved and choose a side.”

So what is Canada’s 2019 election campaign all about? Are voters motivated by pocketbook issues, such as taxes and the economy, or will they focus on character and look to elect their preferred prime minister? My bet is that other more intangible issues, like dealing with climate change, will eventually decide the outcome.

Leadership

At the core of most campaigns is the image and name of the leader, and polling suggests the Conservatives are struggling.

Even during the Liberals’ worst days of the campaign so far, polling showed the Liberal vote dropped by a few percentage points, but the preference for Justin Trudeau over Andrew Scheer remained.

Leadership-based elections, such as the 2015 vote that focused on defeating Harper, revolve around assessments of “character.” But do the Trudeau blackface incidents speak to Canadians about his alleged hypocrisy, as the Conservative attack ads claim? Not according to the polling data.

Motivation

The Conservative Party of Canada could not have hoped for a more embarrassing revelation, because it ties into a central part of their election strategy: to keep the Liberal turnout low and motivate their own base. If the CPC gets out the same level of vote as in 2015, but Liberal turnout is lower by about 10 per cent, Scheer wins.

Yet three out of four Canadians surveyed recently by Abacus Data said they were content with Trudeau’s apology or didn’t care about the issue and wanted to move on. Of the one-quarter who felt it was unacceptable, most of them were already Conservative supporters.

So a majority of Canadians want to “turn the page” and move on to other issues.

Party platforms

This election offers a clear choice in platforms and policies, but only two parties can realistically form government: the Conservatives and the Liberals.

The CPC has stressed the importance of personal advancement, while the Liberals have framed the vote as a collective choice about which direction we want to go.

Is the 2019 election about you getting ahead?

Or is it about choosing a direction for the country?

The economy

So far, the message about Canadians needing to get ahead is resonating in some parts of the country where the economy has struggled, like Alberta. But in B.C., where the provincial economy has been quite strong, that message gets a mixed reaction.

Yes, cost of living is a concern for everyone, especially in a fast-growing economy with very high housing costs, but those concerns have declined over the past few years in B.C.

So in this crucial battleground, the outcome on Oct. 21 will likely be decided less on economic issues and more on a host of other intangibles.

It’s the environment, not the economy or Trudeau

In most polling conducted so far, the environment sits at the top of voter concerns, in some cases mentioned by twice as many Canadians as economic concerns.

Yet many analysts, to their detriment, try to explain away the high number of unprompted mentions of environmental concerns as an aberration.

In B.C., the environment is intimately tied with the economy and never far from the top of any conversation among voters. Its importance partially explains the early rise of Green Party support here at the federal and provincial levels.

Thus, once the page is turned on the blackface incident, all parties will have to face the challenge of crafting a credible environmental plan.

Climate strikes, school walkouts and the instant celebrity of advocates like Swedish 16-year-old activist Greta Thunberg suggest we may have reached a tipping point in public consciousness. If so, how each party intends to tackle climate change could in fact decide who governs Canada.

If an election is actually a time to discuss serious issues, how much more serious can you get than the future of the planet?

Bruce Cameron, Black Press Media’s polling analyst, is the founder of Return On Insight. Follow him on Twitter @roitweets

Just Posted

Unintentionally trapped cougar safely released near Williams Lake

Conservation officers tranquilized and transported it a short distance before watching it walk away

Local basketball star Annika Parr selected as alternate for Team BC’s U14 squad

Parr is excited about the possibility of playing in Halifax

Snowfall warning continues for parts of B.C.’s Interior

First significant snowfall of the season prompts Environment Canada warning

Hagensborg Water District ratepayers vote to dissolve district

In a close vote of 68 to 63, ratepayers have chosen to dissolve the water district

Bella Coola residents rely on food bank support

Your volunteers at the food bank work year-round, but are especially busy at Christmas

VIDEO: Octopus, bald eagle battle after bird ‘bites off more than it can chew’ in B.C. waters

B.C. crew films fight between the two feisty animals in Quatsino off north Vancouver Island

Raptors fans show Kawhi the love in his return to Toronto

Leonard receives championship ring, leads new club to win

Process to identify those killed in Gabriola plane crash could take days

Canadian flight museum suggests Alex Bahlsen of Mill Bay died in Tuesday’s crash

‘Honest mistake:’ RCMP says B.C. cannabis shop can keep image of infamous Mountie

Sam Steele wearing military, not RCMP uniform in image depicted in Jimmy’s Cannabis window

B.C. conservation officers put down fawn blinded by pellet gun on Vancouver Island

Young deer found near construction site in Hammond Bay area in Nanaimo, B.C.

Laid-off forest workers converge on B.C. legislature

Loggers call for action on strike, provincial stumpage

B.C. guide fined $2K in first conviction under new federal whale protection laws

Scott Babcock found guilty of approaching a North Pacific humpback whale at less than 100 metres

Feds urge Air Canada to fix booking problems as travel season approaches

The airline introduced the new reservation system more than three weeks ago

Almost 14,000 Canadians killed by opioids since 2016: new national study

17,000 people have been hospitalized for opioid-related poisoning

Most Read