British Prime Minister Boris Johnson answers questions during a media conference at an EU summit in Brussels, Thursday, Oct. 17, 2019. Britain and the European Union reached a new tentative Brexit deal on Thursday, hoping to finally escape the acrimony, divisions and frustration of their three-year divorce battle. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)

Canadian business needs Brexit certainty but Johnson plan only a start: observers

The outcome of the unusual weekend vote in London is itself far from predictable

Experts warn that a post-Brexit United Kingdom will present Canadian business with tremendous uncertainty about billions of dollars worth of trade and investments, no matter how the British Parliament votes on Saturday.

The outcome of the unusual weekend vote in London is itself far from predictable, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson struggles to get support for a controversial agreement that he reached Thursday with the European Union.

But observers say even a Johnson success would only provide a starting point for further rounds of difficult negotiations between London and Brussels and eventually between Canada and the United Kingdom.

Fasken partner Clifford Sosnow says the primary benefit of Johnson’s plan is that it would provide for 14 months to 36 months of negotiations on a new trade deal for two of Canada’s biggest export and investment markets.

“The major concern for everybody is the instability and the instability from not knowing what the business relationship will be, what the investment relationship will be,” says Sosnow, who provides strategic advice about international trade and investments at one of Canada’s largest business law firms.

He adds that open talks between the United Kingdom and Canada would be allowed only after the U.K. leaves the European Union on Oct. 31, if Johnson’s schedule is passed by the British House of Commons.

ALSO READ: Brexit hard-liner Boris Johnson wins race to become UK’s next prime minister

The United Kingdom by itself, represents one of Canada’s top five destinations for investments and top 10 markets for goods and services.

It has also been a gateway for Canadian companies that do business in the European Union, which is Canada’s second- or third-biggest trading partner after the United States and China, depending on the measure.

About 40 per cent of Canadian trade in merchandise with the EU goes through United Kingdom, says Achim Hurrelmann, a political scientist and co-director of Carleton University’s Centre for European Studies in Ottawa.

Without a good free-trade deal between Brussels and London, companies may reconsider “whether they want to stay in the United Kingdom or … go to Dublin (Ireland), or to France or to Germany or the Netherlands.”

“To some extent, that has already happened but my impression is that most companies have been staying put and observing and waiting (to see) what is happening,” Hurrelmann says.

He says that Johnson’s proposed deal would provide more time to sort out the U.K.’s trade relationship with the EU but also with Canada.

“Canada wants to have a trade deal with the U.K. and the U.K. wants to have one with Canada as well,” Hurrelmann says.

“But the question, of course, is will we have time to actually work that out properly or will that have to be very rushed after a no-deal Brexit.”

Mark Camilleri, a Brussels-based Canadian at the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association, says he thinks it’s fair to say “that having any deal is better than having no deal” if only to reduce uncertainty.

He says that having no U.K.-EU. deal “it would potentially be very destabilizing for businesses, including Canadian businesses that are not just based in the U.K. but also based in the EU that are trading to the U.K.”

But Camilleri noted the British Parliament has rejected Theresa May’s proposals on three occasions so ’one has to hold one’s breath as to whether or not (Johnson’s deal) will get through.”

David Paddon, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Freezing rain warning issued for central Interior Remembrance Day

Highway alerts in place for Begbie Summitt and Pine Pass

BCTF rejects mediator’s recommendations for settlement

Negotiations between B.C. teachers and the province will continue

Isaac Mack BCRA 2019 Bullriding Champion

Mack wrapped up the BCRA season with $12,484.99 in season earnings.

B.C. debate becomes bitter over impact of UN Indigenous rights law

Premier John Horgan cites salmon farm closures as model, opposition points to LNG, contracts

Indigenous-led organizations and province announce initiative to get North Coast communities off oil

First Nations communities from Haida Gwaii to Bella Bella will be eligible

Petition to ‘bring back Don Cherry’ goes viral after immigrant poppy rant

Cherry was fired from his co-hosting role for the Coach’s Corner segment on Nov. 11.

Disney Plus streaming service hits Canada with tech hurdles

Service costs $8.99 per month, or $89.99 per year, in Canada

Trudeau’s opponents: One gives him an earful, another seeks common ground

PM meets with Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe

Rona’s ‘truly Canadian’ ads are inaccurate, watchdog says

Ads Standards points out U.S.-based Lowe’s acquired Rona in 2016

Brian Burke considered favourite to replace Don Cherry

Brian Burke is the 5-4 pick to be the full-time replacement next season

Major donor Peter Allard takes UBC to court to get his name on all law degrees

Philanthropist claims school not adhering to 2014 agreement for his $30-million donation

Report predicts drug resistance likely to kill 400,000 Canadians by 2050

This increase is expected to cost Canada 396,000 lives, $120 billion in hospital expenses

Sportsnet fires Don Cherry after negative comments about immigrants

Don Cherry had said immigrants don’t wear poppies like other Canadians do

Most Read